2026 PV New Installation Forecast Drops for First Time

China's photovoltaic industry is facing a turning point in growth rate.

At an industry seminar held in Beijing on February 4-5, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that domestic new PV installations in 2026 will fall to the 180-240GW range, a significant decrease from the actual 315.07GW installed in 2025. This first downward revision in official expectations marks the end of an era characterized by scale expansion.

An official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated at the same event that 2026 will be the "critical year for PV industry governance," with tackling industry involution listed as the top priority. With the implementation of new distributed PV regulations and electricity market pricing reforms, a wait-and-see sentiment is spreading in the market, forcing PV companies to re-examine their survival strategies.

Industry Policy Shifts to "High-Quality Steady Growth"

The release of the 2026 new PV installation forecast has attracted widespread attention within the industry. According to the "2025-2026 China PV Industry Development Roadmap" published by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, even under optimistic scenarios, new installations in 2026 can only reach 240GW, a decrease of nearly one-quarter from last year.

This shift in expectations is directly related to changes in the policy environment. Since last year, new regulations for distributed PV management and electricity market pricing reforms have been implemented, altering the industry's operating rules. The market needs time to digest these new policies, naturally leading to a wait-and-see sentiment.

Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, analyzed at the seminar: "As the effects of supporting policies such as integrated new energy development and direct power construction connections become apparent, new PV installations will return to an upward trajectory, but the growth rate will slow significantly compared to the '14th Five-Year Plan' period." His assessment reveals the industry's future direction—a shift from "rapid expansion" to "high-quality steady growth."

This shift is already evident in the "15th Five-Year Plan." According to forecasts, between 2026 and 2030, China's average annual new PV installations will fluctuate between 238GW and 287GW, while the global annual average will be between 725GW and 870GW. Growth continues, but the pace has changed.

High-Quality, Fair-Price Competition Becomes Essential

"2026 is the critical year for PV industry governance, and tackling industry involution will be the top priority this year." This statement from Wang Shijiang, Deputy Director of the Electronic Information Department of MIIT, sets the tone for the PV industry's work this year.

The phenomenon of industry involution in the PV sector has persisted for some time. Price wars caused by overcapacity are intensifying, severely squeezing corporate profit margins. Data shows that domestic PV module bidding prices in 2025 have fallen by over 40% compared to 2023, with some project bids approaching or even falling below production costs.

This irrational competition model has drawn high regulatory attention. Wang Shijiang revealed that MIIT, together with multiple departments, will "comprehensively utilize tools such as capacity regulation, standard guidance, quality supervision, price enforcement, preventing monopoly risks, and strengthening intellectual property protection" to accelerate the achievement of dynamic supply-demand balance.

Mandatory national standards will become an important regulatory tool. It is reported that multiple mandatory national standards covering quality safety, labeling specifications, and energy consumption limits are being accelerated. These standards will curb industry malpractices such as falsely labeled power ratings and relaxed quality control, guiding the market towards healthy "high-quality, fair-price" competition.

Market supervision will also be strengthened. Relevant departments plan to increase the frequency and scope of product quality supervision and spot checks, taking strict measures against products and companies that do not meet standards. This combination of measures aims to create a more standardized and transparent development environment for the PV industry.

Perovskite May Become Breakthrough Industrial Technology

Facing an industry adjustment period, finding new growth points has become a common challenge for PV companies. Technological breakthroughs are widely regarded as the key path to breaking the deadlock of involution.

Perovskite technology has become a focus. MIIT clearly stated that it will "continue to promote the industrialization pace of advanced photovoltaic technologies, especially in frontier fields such as perovskite tandem cells." This signal has ignited corporate enthusiasm for R&D in next-generation photovoltaic technologies.

Perovskite photovoltaic technology offers advantages such as high theoretical efficiency, significant cost reduction potential, and diverse application scenarios, and is considered an innovative technology that could disrupt the industry landscape. Currently, dozens of domestic companies have entered the perovskite field, with some having completed pilot lines and begun small-scale production.

Technological breakthroughs bring not only product upgrades but also a shift in the dimension of competition. When companies can gain differentiated advantages through technological innovation, the focus of industry competition will shift from price to value. This shift benefits companies that have long invested in R&D, as their accumulated technological advantages will be fully realized in the new phase.

The expansion of PV application scenarios is also noteworthy. With technological progress, PV modules are becoming more efficient, lighter, and more flexible. Their application range is expanding from traditional large-scale ground-mounted plants and rooftops to emerging areas such as building facades, agricultural greenhouses, and vehicle exteriors. This diversification provides new momentum for industry growth.

The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a profound transformation. From simply pursuing installation scale to focusing on system efficiency and grid integration; from the vicious cycle of price wars to healthy competition through technological innovation, the industry is redefining its development logic.

As the policy environment improves, market competition becomes more standardized, and technological paths become clearer, the PV industry is expected to emerge from its adjustment period and step onto a healthier, more sustainable development track. The growth slowdown in 2026 may well be a necessary cost of this transformation.

For PV companies, adapting to the new industry environment, adjusting development strategies, and increasing innovation investment will be key to survival and development in the coming years. Those that can complete this transformation first are likely to become the leaders in the next industry cycle.